DAN CEARNS The Standard
In one of my more recent columns, I referenced the situation of former female Prime Minister Kim Campbell. Right now, it feels like that situation is quite relevant following the departure announcement of Justin Trudeau.
For those who don’t know, Kim Campbell is Canada’s only female Prime Minister. She became Prime Minister in 1993 after Brian Mulroney resigned, holding the role for 132 days. What happened after she called an election was that her party went from a majority government to only holding two seats in parliament. I feel like whoever takes over the Liberal leadership could be facing a similar fate.
The Liberal Party has been suffering in the polls for months, with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives holding a sizeable lead in favourability. It would be quite the mountain for any new party leader to climb to try to hold onto government with an election inevitable this year. Parliament is currently prorogued until late March, giving a hint of a timeline for the Liberal leadership race. If that’s the deadline to have a new leader in place, at most it would give the party seven months to endear their new leader to Canadians. It is likely going to be less time, with the NDP, Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives all planning on toppling the current minority government.
Also, of the rumoured field of candidates for the leadership, there are a number of longtime Liberal Party names, such as Chrystia Freeland, Anita Anand and Steven Mackinnon. It would be really easy for any party leader to paint one of these people as “the same as Justin Trudeau.” The party has also been in power for over nine years, which is the usual timeline that Canadians tend to look for change.
In the United States, the Democratic Party thought they couldn’t win with Joe Biden, given the age concerns, and went with Kamala Harris. While it may have saved the party some votes, we saw it wasn’t enough to defeat the now President-elect Donald Trump. This is another example the Liberal party needs to be wary of.
If the Liberals aren’t careful, I can foresee whoever takes on the mantle of new leader being one of Canada’s shortest term Prime Ministers and the party could see landslide results that don’t fall in its favour.
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