Inevitable election

DAN CEARNS The Standard

With the recent news that the federal NDP have pulled out of 'the supply and confidence deal' they have had, with the governing Liberal party, it feels like an election, before 2025, is more likely.

On Wednesday, September 4th, NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh stated, in a video on his social media account, he has “ripped up the Supply and Confidence Agreement,” because he feels “the Liberals have let people down.” The agreement pledged the NDP’s support, to keep the government from falling on a confidence vote, while giving the Liberals a list of NDP priorities to achieve.

The video itself felt like a call to action for an election, with MP Singh saying, the Liberals “cannot stop the Conservatives.” He then attempted to paint the NDP as the party of “hope.” Mr. Singh even referred to the next federal election, mentioning, he felt it will come down to a decision between the NDP and the Conservative Party.

Pulling out of this agreement separates the NDP from the Liberal Party, at a time when the Liberals are falling behind in every poll conducted and after the Liberals lost a recent longtime riding in a by-election. It feels like a move tailored for an election, a chance for the NDP to ditch the party they’ve been supporting and attempt to define themselves as the better option.

In addition, moving to an election fits the statistics for minority governments, in the past in Canada. On average, federal minority governments last between two and three years, before, either falling on a confidence vote or calling an election for a new mandate. We’re nearing the three year mark when the Liberals were last elected, on September 20st, 2021, as a minority government.

The NDP could be also looking South of the border for inspiration. Since Kamala Harris was named the Democratic Party candidate, in the USA election, she has seen a surge in popularity in polls. She has run a campaign on positivity, calling herself a “joyful warrior.” In his video, Mr. Singh talked about the hope of Canadians “standing united” and about creating a thriving middle class. It feels like similar messaging.

A federal election has not yet been called, but, it seems like only a matter of time before Canadians are sent back to the polls again. The end of the NDP-Liberal agreement is the first step.